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Burke, R D, Parrish, K and El Asmar, M (2018) Environmental Product Declarations: Use in the Architectural and Engineering Design Process to Support Sustainable Construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 144(05).
Delgado, L, Shealy, T, Garvin, M and Pearce, A (2018) Framing Energy Efficiency with Payback Period: Empirical Study to Increase Energy Consideration during Facility Procurement Processes. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 144(05).
Doloi, H (2018) Community-Centric Model for Evaluating Social Value in Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 144(05).
El-Sabek, L M and McCabe, B Y (2018) Framework for Managing Integration Challenges of Last Planner System in IMPs. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 144(05).
Farshchian, M M and Heravi, G (2018) Probabilistic Assessment of Cost, Time, and Revenue in a Portfolio of Projects Using Stochastic Agent-Based Simulation. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 144(05).
- Type: Journal Article
- Keywords:
- ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
- URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001476
- Abstract:
Unforeseen conditions and uncertainties typically surround construction projects during the execution phase. These uncertainties are the main reason for schedule delays and cost overruns. Stochastic simulation models have been developed to consider projects’ uncertainties and various probabilities. Although numerous studies have been conducted on causes and effects of uncertainties in individual projects, the uncertainties in a portfolio of projects have not been assessed. This study presents an agent-based simulation model developed to consider time and cost uncertainties in an owner’s portfolio of projects. The model can simulate different conditions and scenarios, taking into account costs inflation during projects’ execution periods. It contributes to the portfolio management body of knowledge by simulating the progress of a portfolio of projects against different scenarios, considering stochastic time, cost, and inflation rates. The simulation results assist owners to do probabilistic assessment and reduce uncertainties and risks related to time, cost, and revenue of their portfolio of projects and calculate the confidence level of their decisions and strategies. To demonstrate the capabilities of the model, an example portfolio containing 50 projects is modeled and different scenarios are evaluated. Results of the simulation indicate that the model works well and provides detailed information at the portfolio level and projects’ level. Fitting probability distributions to the results, it is seen that using the most likely numbers as deterministic parameters may lead to overestimating portfolio revenue and cost. The results indicate that using the portfolio stochastic agent-based simulation model can have significant effects on organizations’ predictions regarding their costs and revenues.
Liang, Q, Leung, M and Cooper, C (2018) Focus Group Study to Explore Critical Factors for Managing Stress of Construction Workers. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 144(05).
Lines, B C and Ravi Kumar, G G (2018) Developing More Competitive Proposals: Relationship between Contractor Qualifications-Based Proposal Content and Owner Evaluation Scores. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 144(05).
Mahpour, A and Mortaheb, M M (2018) Financial-Based Incentive Plan to Reduce Construction Waste. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 144(05).
Nguyen, D A, Garvin, M J and Gonzalez, E E (2018) Risk Allocation in U.S. Public-Private Partnership Highway Project Contracts. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 144(05).
Rocha, C G d, Anzanello, M J and Gerchman, M (2018) Method to Assess the Match between Clients’ Input and Decoupling Points in Customized Building Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 144(05).
Schuldt, S and El-Rayes, K (2018) Optimizing the Planning of Remote Construction Sites to Minimize Facility Destruction from Explosive Attacks. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 144(05).
Tembo-Silungwe, C K and Khatleli, N (2018) Identification of Enablers and Constraints of Risk Allocation Using Structuration Theory in the Construction Industry. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 144(05).
Yap, J B H, Abdul-Rahman, H and Wang, C (2018) Preventive Mitigation of Overruns with Project Communication Management and Continuous Learning: PLS-SEM Approach. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 144(05).
Zhang, M, Cheng, W and Wang, Y (2018) Multiple-Fault Classification for Hot-Mix Asphalt Production by Machine Learning. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 144(05).